People are getting increasingly more interested in the halving of the world’s number one coin by market capitalization – Bitcoin (BTC). As a matter of fact, their interest has reached an all-time high and is now stronger than in Bitcoin itself.
The third Bitcoin mining reward halving is on its way, estimated to happen in less than a month, in May, and the coin is undoubtedly more known in the world than it was in 2016, before the second halving. However, it seems that those who already know what bitcoin is are still looking for more information about the halving, according to the Google Trends data.
If we take that a value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term, as Google Trends explains, therefore meaning that a value of 50 means that the term is half as popular, we can compare correlated terms and see how they are faring in comparison. When comparing “bitcoin halving” and “bitcoin price” – a term one would think of the highest importance, we find the first one very slowly rising from the late 2018 when it had a value of 3, climbing to 16 in June 2019, then seeing a sharp rise in December 2019, reaching the value of 50 in March, and rising further up to 100 in April. Meanwhile, the searches for “bitcoin price” remained stagnant in comparison, at values <1.
We see a similar situation when comparing “bitcoin halving” to another important term – just “bitcoin.” While the former has shot up to 100, the latter lingers around 2-3. Zooming in to observe the past 12 months as opposed to a decade, we see “bitcoin halving” having a gradual rise starting December 2019 and shooting up in the last week of March. Moreover, interest in the halving is now stronger than in bitcoin during the market rally in 2017, when BTC hit USD 20,000.
Meanwhile, the previous all-time high was 75 in the first week of July 2016, while the previous BTC halving was on July 9, 2016. However, the difference between then and now is that the interest leading up to this halving started months earlier than for the one four years ago (c. 6 months vs. c. 3 months).
Crypto research firm Arcane Research also noted this rise in interest, while the CEO of Arcane Crypto, Torbjørn Bull Jenssen, tweeted (before this peak surpassed the 2016 one): “The peak was higher in 2016, but it was short-lived. The current search volume is more constant.”
Meanwhile, trader and economist Alex Krüger commented on the possibility of making predictions about what’s to come following this halving based on limited data, there having been only two Bitcoin halvings, and generally, very few others that would provide an insight. “Everyone does it,” he argues. While crypto analysts are criticized, he says, “equity analysts have been out in full-force trying to predict what will happen in 2020 by looking at 1918, 1929 or 2008 [crises].”
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